some mindless optimism

These scenes will be repeated....probably

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By Nick Miller

It's a strange, strange thing going into an Ashes series with any sense of optimism.

Before 2005, as far back as I can remember England have not only been beaten by Australia, but have received a fearful, horrible, humiliating spanking.

Ashes tours were greeted with the same kind of feeling that football World Cups and Euro Championships are now - hope, without any scrap of expectation.

I was essentially conditioned from an early age that cricket matches against Australia would mean just one thing - misery. A misery that was only heightened by the odd teasing victory, like Edgbaston in 1997.

And that is why last summer was so spectacular.

Even then I didn't really expect England to win. Lord's served to confirm my worst fears, Edgbaston I took as another teaser, and it wasn't until Trent Bridge that my natural pessimism began to lift.

Even on the last day at the Oval, I expected England to lose. In fact, the moment that I became convinced that the Ashes had been reclaimed wasn't until Ashley Giles clubbed Glenn McGrath down the ground to bring up his 50. Looking back, England realistically had the draw wrapped up well before that, but that's what 16 years of sound tannings does to a man.

This time it's different somehow.

My optimism is somewhat logic-defying. England's form since the Ashes has been patchy to say the least - the only series win has been against a Pakistan side with half a bowling attack, while Australia have swept all before them.

On paper Australia are stronger and England are weaker than in 2005. Mike Hussey has replaced the inadequate Simon Katich for the Aussies, while the still raw Sajid Mahmood will probably play instead of Simon Jones for Blighty.

Maybe all that psychologist's guff about Australia's air of invincibility falling has filtered through to me. Maybe England really do have a chance. Or maybe I'm just a tragically misguided fool

So in this new spirit of mindless optimism, I predict an England win - 2-1 again.

Don't anyone take that as a tip though. I will flatly deny any such prediction come January if it all goes horribly wrong. You can't prove anything......